Poll Shows Carbon Tax Needs Sale of the Century to Change Voters' Views

THE government's task of selling the carbon price to voters when it begins on July 1 remains difficult, with a poll showing entrenched negative attitudes towards the policy.

The latest Herald/Nielsen poll shows support for a price on carbon at 36 per cent, with 60 per cent opposed.

Just over half of voters - 52 per cent - believe they will be worse off, even though low- and middle-income earners will get $15 billion compensation to cover cost-of-living increases.

Another 39 per cent believe it will make no difference to their cost of living, while 5 per cent feel they will be better off.

The poll of 1400 voters was taken from Thursday night to Saturday night last week, after Labor's crushing defeat in the Queensland election.

The Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, sought to implicate Julia Gillard's broken promise not to introduce a carbon tax as a factor in that defeat.

The numbers in the latest poll have barely changed in more than a year. Before Ms Gillard announced the carbon policy in February last year, the poll found support for putting a price on carbon evenly split. After the announcement - and opposition claims she had broken her promise - support fell to 35 per cent and opposition rose to 56 per cent. The levels have altered little since.

In July, the government revealed details of the household compensation, which will be worth $15 billion in the first four years. It would be paid as tax cuts and welfare and pension increases. In many cases, those on very low incomes would receive more in compensation than their increase in cost of living as estimated by Treasury.

The Herald poll taken then showed 53 per cent felt they would be worse off, 37 per cent felt there would be no change and 6 per cent felt they would be better off. These numbers are almost identical to the latest poll.

Ms Gillard has rejected calls from business to reduce the impact of the carbon price by cutting the fixed starting price of $23 a tonne roughly in half, to bring it in line with the carbon price in Europe.
Yesterday, she said voter anxiety with her government had been fuelled by the Coalition's ''hyper-partisanship''. She said it had ''force-fed for many months a diet of completely outlandish scare campaigns about what carbon pricing is going to mean''.

She repeated that employment would still grow, the cost-of-living impact would be less than 1 per cent and the compensation would be in place.

Mr Abbott has promised that, if elected, his first act as prime minister would be to unwind the price on carbon. Ms Gillard told Channel Ten's Meet the Press program this ''chest-beating'' would ''prove to be incredibly hollow''.

By next year, the carbon price would be a year old, the economy would have started to adjust and ''people would have got the money in their hands''.

''Mr Abbott, I think, will find it very difficult indeed to pretend to the Australian people that he is going to seriously dismantle all that,'' she said.

Our ETS Future 'Will Not Come Cheaply

AUSTRALIA will be unable to produce affordable baseload power supplies while meeting its emissions targets under present policy, new research has found.

A study by Melbourne's Grattan Institute, to be published today, warns that while carbon pricing will help make low-emissions technologies competitive, it will not be enough without big structural and policy changes.

Tony Wood, the institute's energy program director, says governments face "an acute intellectual and policy challenge" steering a course between inadequate support for low-emissions technologies or unduly favouring one technology over another. He cautions "Australia's move to a low-carbon future will be too expensive unless they do."

The Grattan research stresses markets as the primary mechanism by which Australia can reduce its emissions, but it says markets cannot work properly unless governments optimise regulatory and policy frameworks.

The study also warns against letting ideology limit the scope for manoeuvre by preventing serious evaluation of carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. "A range of technologies available today can generate electricity at or below 0.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour and have significant scale-up projection," the Grattan research finds.

"Yet none currently represents more than 2 per cent of Australia's electricity supply and

their future technical and economic potential is shrouded in uncertainty."

The report finds further refinement of the underlying technologies of low-emission energy options will be the most important tool for their future development and commercialisation.

It reminds governments of their roles overseeing the development of new transmission networks and pipelines, resource maps, market frameworks, regulations and engineering skills.

The Grattan researchers urge the commonwealth to ensure the carbon pricing scheme works properly by setting long-term emission caps and call on all governments to act to ensure there is a level playing field for all power-generating technologies.

The report's authors urge the removal of obstacles that impede technologies such as wind and geothermal from connecting at large-scale to electricity grids built around the needs of very large fossil-fuel plants.

Carbon Tax Opposition Grows: Newspoll

There is growing opposition to the carbon tax after the House of Representatives passed bills for the scheme, a Newspoll has found.

Opposition to the tax has jumped six percentage points to 59 per cent, the poll commissioned by The Australian has found.

Support for the tax has fallen four points to 32 per cent.

But it's not all bad news for Labor, with the poll showing there was a four-point drop in the Coalition's primary vote to 45 per cent, the lowest since May this year.

The Greens climbed back to a record 15 per cent primary vote support, rising three points.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard's personal satisfaction with voters rose three percentage points to 31 per cent.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's rating was down from 36 per cent to 34 per cent.

However, Mr Abbott still maintained the lead as preferred prime minister at 39 per cent compared with Ms Gillard's 36 per cent.

Newspoll chief Martin O'Shannessy said Labor's primary vote was stuck on 29 per cent, unchanged from two weeks ago while the Coalition's loss of support had mostly gone to the Greens.

Ms Gillard might take heart from the improvement in her approval rating, he said.

But continuing opposition to the carbon tax made it hard to accept the government's view that the passage of its legislation through Parliament would improve Labor's position.

"We have been tracking this now for a while. Back in April-May it was 60, in July 59," Mr O'Shannessy told ABC Radio.

The latest Newspoll has opposition to the carbon tax still at 59 per cent.

Parliamentary secretary Kate Lundy believes commonsense will prevail on the carbon tax.

"This policy is embedded in good science," she told Sky News.

"I think the opposition is starting to be exposed in the lack of sincerity in their fear campaign."

People were starting to question the opposition's motivation, knowing it was about "dirty politics" not policy.

Opposition frontbencher George Brandis said the Coalition was "very, very happy" about the latest Newspoll.

"For the Labor Party to find comfort from the fact they're only 16 [percentage points] behind the Coalition on the primary vote ... just goes to show how desperate the Labor Party's situation has become," he said.

Senator Brandis rejected any suggestion the Coalition was playing politics over the carbon tax.

"We simply think it is a stupid idea and, by a majority to two to one, so do the Australian people."

Australia Releases Rules for CO2 Credits from Culling Camels

Killing camels to earn carbon credits might seem an extreme way to fight climate change, but the Australian government on Thursday issued detailed rules that will help investors do just that.

Adelaide-based Northwest Carbon, a carbon project developer, has developed the rules, or methodology, governing a strict camel culling programme that would also cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Like cows and sheep, camel digestive tracts produce large amounts of methane, a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, with adults producing about a tonne of methane a year.

With no natural predators, camels now number more than one million in Australia's desert centre and the population is growing quickly.

The methodology is one of many being developed under the government's Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI), the country's first nationally regulated carbon offset programme that aims to reward farmers and investors for steps that cut greenhouse gas emissions on the land.

The government, which supports Northwest Carbon's 63-page methodology, released the rules for public consultation on Thursday.

Legislation for the Carbon Farming Initiative is being debated before parliament, and it is likely to be approved. The scheme is far less controversial than a separate carbon pricing programme the government is struggling to win support for.

Camels, introduced in the 19th century, have become a major pest in Australia. They trample large areas of vegetation, damage water holes and compete with native species for food.

Camel culling under the methodology could generate up to 18 million carbon credits, with more than 650,000 created per year during the initial three to five years, Northwest Carbon said in a statement on Thursday.

Cutting methane from landfills, better management of grassland burning and tree plantations are also approved methods under the CFI, in addition to feral animal management.

Once the CFI is running, polluters will be able to buy offsets from approved projects or they can be sold overseas. But the scheme is expected to start off slowly until parliament also passes the separate laws that put a national price on carbon emissions.
Agriculture can comprise a large portion of a country's greenhouse gas emissions. In Australia, it is about 15 percent, while in New Zealand dairy farming, sheep grazing and other activities generate about half the country's total, mostly methane from livestock. One cow can emit 1.5 tonnes of methane a year.

People's revolt looms on Australian carbon tax, Tony Abbott predicts

TONY Abbott has predicted a "people's revolt" over Julia Gillard's proposed carbon tax, saying the measure is a breach of faith with the Australian people and an assault on their standard of living.

The Prime Minister today announced Australia would have a carbon tax for three to five years before the introduction of a full emissions trading scheme.

But this afternoon Mr Abbott moved to suspend question time in parliament to censure Ms Gillard, saying she had broken a pre-election promise.

The Opposition leader said that under a $26-a-tonne carbon price, power bills would jump $300 a year and petrol prices would rise 6.5c a litre.

He said voters had believed Ms Gillard when she promised before the election that she would not introduce a carbon tax.

"Today's announcement is an utter betrayal of the Australia people," Mr Abbott said.

"We will fight this tax every second of every minute of every day of every of very month.

"I think there will be a people's revolt against this carbon tax and I don't think it will every happen because the Australian public will be so revolted by this breach of faith."

In a 2010 election-eve interview with The Australian, Ms Gillard said she would not introduce a carbon tax.

"I don't rule out the possibility of legislating a carbon pollution reduction scheme, a market-based mechanism,'' she said then. "I rule out a carbon tax.''

Moving the censure motion, Mr Abbott asked whether it was the “real Julia” who made the pledge in the first place.

“Nothing is more fake than making a promise to the Australian people before the election and breaking it after the election,” Mr Abbott said.

Ms Gillard said Mr Abbott only wanted to “wreck”, comparing him unfavourably to former prime minister John Howard.

"He wanted to be remembered for the things he created, not the things he destroyed,'' the prime minister said.

She said Australia could not be left behind as the world moved to a low-carbon future.

A price will be put on carbon from July next year under a framework agreed with the Greens and key independents.

The carbon price will apply to the energy sector, transport, industrial emissions and waste. It will not hit the agricultural sector.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet today left the door open for fuel to be included in the cap-and-trade system.

"That is not a settled issue at this point in time, but it is an issue the committee will consider," he said.

Mr Combet said the committee would consider phasing in emissions trading for different sections of the economy.

A review one year before the end of the fixed price period would consider if there were any reasons to delay moving to a cap-and-trade scheme.

The starting carbon price, the length of the fixed period and assistance measures for affected individuals and firms are still to be determined.

The Prime Minister said Australia had to put a price on carbon because "history teaches us that the countries and economies that prosper are those that get in and shape and manage the change".

"I'm determined to price carbon," she told reporters. "The time is right and the time is now."

Ms Gillard predicted a tough fight ahead with Mr Abbott, saying he would wage a sustained fear campaign.

"Can I make it very clear that in the debate that will ensue I am not intending to take a backwards step," she said.

Ms Gillard made the announcement at Parliament House flanked by the Greens, Mr Combet and key independent MPs.

Greens deputy leader Christine Milne said the deal would not have occurred without the party's input.

"It's happening because we have shared power in Australia," she said.

"Majority governments would not have delivered this outcome. It is because the Greens are in balance of power working with the other parties to deliver not only the aspiration but the process to achieve it."

A climate change committee - comprising the government, Greens and independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott - has held four meetings since it was set up in September last year.

Ms Gillard said the government's emissions reduction target was unaltered at 5 per cent by 2020.

She said the system would not remain a simple carbon tax, as it was "hard wired" to shift to an emissions trading system.

Crossbenchers Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott will be crucial in securing a parliamentary agreement on a carbon price.

Mr Oakeshott endorsed the framework, declaring "I would vote for this tomorrow".

Mr Windsor was more circumspect, saying his support was not guaranteed.

"Please don't construe from my presence here that I will be supporting anything," he said.

He said there was "a whole range of unanswered questions" still to be answered.

Both independents welcomed the exclusion of agriculture from the framework agreement.

Australia to get carbon scheme by July 2012

Australia's minority Labor government has announced the country will have a carbon price by July 2012. The government has been working to reconstruct emissions trading policy after a dramatic failure under the former Labor prime minister, Kevin Rudd.

Some say the date is ambitious and leaves a multi-party parliamentary committee in a race against time to answer a list of hard questions. And the opposition has accused the prime minister of breaking a promise not impose such a tax.

MOTTRAM: Releasing a framework that sets the first of July next year as a date for setting a carbon price for Australia, Julia Gillard said now was the right time because the climate was changing as more people than ever produce more carbon than ever, but also because lingering would be bad for Australia's economy.

GILLARD: History teaches us that the countries and the economies who prosper at times of historic change are those who get in and shape and manage the change.

MOTTRAM: But a carbon price remains highly contentious in Australia. And Julia Gillard, who promised during last year's election campaign that there would not be a carbon price in this term of a Labor government, has had to work within the reality of being a minority government, courting Greens who will shortly have the balance of power in the senate, and independents who decide whether or not government measures get through parliament's lower house.

The political reality was in evidence as Ms Gillard made her announcement, flanked not only by her climate change minister, but two Greens senators and two of the lower house's four independent MPs who are part of a multi party committee that's working on how to price carbon. The Greens deputy leader, Christine Milne, made the political point.

MILNE: And it's happening because we have shared power in Australia. Majority governments would not have delivered this outcome, it is because the Greens are in balance of power working with the other parties to deliver not only the aspiration but the process to achieve it.

MOTTRAM: And with the opposition already calling it a breach of faith and an expensive one for consumers, it claims, the prime minister later conceded the point.

Politics aside, the framework sets a key goal, the July 2012 start date for a carbon price to establish an Australian market for tradeable carbon permits. It would be a two stage process. For the first three to five years, the carbon price will be fixed. Then it will shift to a flexible price, set by the market, pending a review of conditions, domestic and international, a year before that transition.

The committee says it gives business and industry what it wants now, certainty that there will be price on pollution where polluting is currently free.

But the framework is a long way from answering some key and very hard questions. Australia's climate change minister is Greg Combet.

COMBET: You will see that there has been no discussion to date of the starting price for the carbon price mechanism, or of the proposed household assistance measures that might obtain, or of the proposed measures for assisting industry for the transition to a clean energy future at this point in time. That is detailed work that of course we will have ahead of us in the weeks and months ahead. But nonetheless, the mechanism that has been outlined here is a very important step forward.

MOTTRAM: The mechanism also excludes agriculture and the status of transport is still under consideration. But one of the most contentious elements of former prime minister Kevin Rudd's failed attempt to introduce an emissions trading scheme will also likely dog this continuing negotiation - how much compensation should go to what are called emissions intensive, trade exposed industries - that is, big polluting companies like the coal fired power sector and the aluminium industry, which the Greens would want to see given as little help as possible.

Greens leader Bob Brown flagged his view.

BROWN: We are open to looking at the impact on the trade exposed industries but there is quite a deal of world experience in this now and we'll be looking at that experience because it doesn't back up some of the alarmist projections we've heard in the past.

MOTTRAM: Some of those alarmist projections included one that an emissions trading scheme would return Australians to the days of candles and horses and carts. The opposition leader, Tony Abbott, quickly flagged his continuing intense disagreement with a carbon price.

ABBOTT: We will fight this every second of every minute of every hour of every day of every week of every month. I don't believe it's going to happen because I think there will be a people's revolt - they will see this as an assault on their standard of living, which is exactly what it is.

MOTTRAM: So the government and its allies will be racing to embed a carbon trading scheme, aware that if they don't do so sooner rather than later, an election that delivered victory to Mr Abbott's side could see the scheme undone again. Ms Gillard can also anticipate a backlash from voters, if the claim that she's broken an election pledge not to have a carbon price takes hold.

Reporter: Linda Mottram, Canberra correspondent
Speakers: Julia Gillard, Australia prime minister; Christine Milne, deputy leader, Australian Greens Party; Greg Combet, Australian climate change minister; Bob Brown, leader, Australian Greens Party; Tony Abbott, Australian opposition leader

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Labor to launch carbon credit scheme for farmers

The Federal Government will today outline a plan to help farmers earn money for selling carbon credits on the international market.

It estimates the scheme could earn farmers up to $500 million over the next 10 years.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong says the Government would set rules to determine what types of greenhouse gas abatement can be rewarded with carbon credits.

"The most obvious one is planting trees; reforestation has been a long-standing approach to trying to store carbon and there are a lot of opportunities in Australia," she said.

"But we want to develop a whole range of methodologies, we want to make sure that farmers can have the opportunity to look at soil carbon, to look at manure management."

The Government would also provide funds to Landcare so its volunteers can educate farmers on how to earn credits.

The initiative is expected to cost about $46 million.

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